PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.