PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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