PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .300
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .265
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .225 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.