PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .371vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .218 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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