PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.