PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NF Nick Fortes RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.