PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .377vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 647 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Jake Burger RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .211 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JP Joc Pederson LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WL Wyatt Langford RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wyatt Langford
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 EC Evan Carter LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Evan Carter
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CS Corey Seager LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corey Seager
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LO Logan O'Hoppe RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Logan O'Hoppe
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NL Nicky Lopez LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nicky Lopez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.