PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 665 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Jake Burger RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .213 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .222 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WL Wyatt Langford RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wyatt Langford
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JJ Josh Jung RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Jung
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 EC Evan Carter LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Evan Carter
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CS Corey Seager LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corey Seager
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JP Joc Pederson LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LO Logan O'Hoppe RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Logan O'Hoppe
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.