PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .377vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 552 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.