PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-27 game page →