PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .227 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.