PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.