PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .329Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 19%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →