PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .376vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-16 game page →