PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.