PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .222 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.