PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Cleveland Guardians

How the Cleveland Guardians's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .376vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Cleveland Guardians's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cleveland Guardians's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JA Jo Adell RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jo Adell
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 SK Steven Kwan LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 655 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Angel Martínez SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.