PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Cleveland Guardians

How the Cleveland Guardians's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Cleveland Guardians's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cleveland Guardians's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JA Jo Adell RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jo Adell
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 SK Steven Kwan LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Angel Martínez SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KM Kyle Manzardo LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Manzardo
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.