PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Cleveland Guardians

How the Cleveland Guardians's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the Cleveland Guardians's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cleveland Guardians's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SK Steven Kwan LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KM Kyle Manzardo LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Manzardo
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Angel Martínez SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RH Rhys Hoskins RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rhys Hoskins
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-02 game page →