PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs San Francisco Giants

How the San Francisco Giants's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the San Francisco Giants's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Francisco Giants's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 RD Rafael Devers LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rafael Devers
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CK Christian Koss RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Koss
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 DC Drew Cavanaugh LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Cavanaugh
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OB Osleivis Basabe RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Osleivis Basabe
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JC Jonah Cox RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonah Cox
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GM Grant McCray LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Grant McCray
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BK Buddy Kennedy RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Buddy Kennedy
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →