PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs San Francisco Giants

How the San Francisco Giants's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the San Francisco Giants's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Francisco Giants's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Willy Adames RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willy Adames
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 BE Bryce Eldridge LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Eldridge
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CK Christian Koss RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Koss
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JC Jonah Cox RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonah Cox
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DC Drew Cavanaugh LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Cavanaugh
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 OB Osleivis Basabe RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Osleivis Basabe
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.