PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .376vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 AP Andy Pages RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andy Pages
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 579 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Max Muncy LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MB Mookie Betts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .218 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HF Hunter Feduccia LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Feduccia
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TE Tommy Edman SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-07 game page →