PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AP Andy Pages RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andy Pages
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MM Max Muncy LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MB Mookie Betts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .225 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TE Tommy Edman SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 WS Will Smith RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Will Smith
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AF Alex Freeland SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.