PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Los Angeles Dodgers

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Los Angeles Dodgers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Los Angeles Dodgers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 FF Freddie Freeman LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddie Freeman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 629 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KT Kyle Tucker LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Tucker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Max Muncy LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Muncy
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Mookie Betts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mookie Betts
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TH Teoscar Hernández RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Teoscar Hernández
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TE Tommy Edman SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Edman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AF Alex Freeland SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Freeland
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 WS Will Smith RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Will Smith
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MR Miguel Rojas RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Rojas
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.