PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.