PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .229 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-24 game page →