PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .371vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-22 game page →