PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .376vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.