PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .221 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.