PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.