PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CY Christian Yelich LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DH David Hamilton LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SF Sal Frelick LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.