PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 18%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.