PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SF Sal Frelick LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.