PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .371vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 26%Four-Seam Fastball 24%Cutter 19%Sinker 12%Curveball 10%Slider 9%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CY Christian Yelich LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Changeup (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →