PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Cutter 17%Sinker 11%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .228 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .399
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .225 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.