PITCHER MATCHUP

Merrill Kelly vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Merrill Kelly's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Merrill Kelly's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Changeup 27%Four-Seam Fastball 25%Cutter 17%Sinker 12%Curveball 11%Slider 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Merrill Kelly, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .399
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Changeup (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-04 game page →