PITCHER MATCHUP

Logan Henderson vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Logan Henderson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Logan Henderson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Changeup 35%Cutter 17%Slider 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Logan Henderson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-10 game page →