PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .290vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 23%Sweeper 22%Splitter 11%Curveball 8%Sinker 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.