PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 23%Sweeper 20%Curveball 12%Splitter 9%Sinker 2%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TS Trevor Story RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.