PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 23%Sweeper 20%Curveball 12%Splitter 9%Sinker 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.