PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .309Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Sweeper 24%Slider 23%Splitter 12%Curveball 5%Sinker 1%Unknown 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.