PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .292vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 23%Sweeper 20%Curveball 10%Splitter 10%Sinker 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.