PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 23%Sweeper 20%Curveball 12%Splitter 9%Sinker 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.