PITCHER MATCHUP

Lake Bachar vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Lake Bachar's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Lake Bachar's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .295vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 23%Sweeper 21%Splitter 10%Curveball 10%Sinker 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Lake Bachar, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JC Jimmy Crooks LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jimmy Crooks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-29 game page →