PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .362vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 19%Curveball 16%Sweeper 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JB JJ Bleday LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →