PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .359vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Slider 18%Curveball 16%Sweeper 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.