PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .377vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 19%Curveball 16%Sweeper 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →