PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .367vs RHH xwOBA .327Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 19%Curveball 16%Sweeper 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →