PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .359vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Slider 18%Curveball 16%Sweeper 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.