PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .359vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Slider 18%Curveball 16%Sweeper 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 591 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 623 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.