PITCHER MATCHUP

Kyle Leahy vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Kyle Leahy's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Kyle Leahy's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .368vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Slider 19%Curveball 16%Sweeper 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Kyle Leahy, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →