PITCHER MATCHUP

Jesús Luzardo vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Jesús Luzardo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Jesús Luzardo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .221vs RHH xwOBA .302Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 32%Four-Seam Fastball 30%Changeup 19%Sinker 14%Slider 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Jesús Luzardo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JB JJ Bleday LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TF TJ Friedl LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sweeper (32% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →