PITCHER MATCHUP

Janson Junk vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Janson Junk's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Slider 25%Sweeper 14%Changeup 13%Curveball 9%Sinker 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-12 game page →