PITCHER MATCHUP

Janson Junk vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Janson Junk's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .294Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 25%Sweeper 14%Changeup 13%Curveball 9%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-26 game page →