PITCHER MATCHUP
Janson Junk vs San Diego Padres
How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.
Janson Junk's arsenal
Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 24%Sweeper 14%Changeup 14%Curveball 10%Sinker 2%
How the San Diego Padres's regulars project
Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.
Lineup avg xwOBA .311
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .351
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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3 MM Manny Machado RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 TF Ty France RHB .295
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .280
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .294
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
- Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (2% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.