PITCHER MATCHUP

Janson Junk vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Janson Junk's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 23%Sweeper 14%Changeup 14%Curveball 10%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.