PITCHER MATCHUP

Janson Junk vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Janson Junk's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .290Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 26%Sweeper 14%Changeup 13%Curveball 10%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →