PITCHER MATCHUP

Janson Junk vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Janson Junk's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Janson Junk's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 24%Sweeper 14%Changeup 14%Curveball 10%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Janson Junk, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.