PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .353vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 28%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 7%Sinker 3%Cutter 3%Sweeper 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LT Leody Taveras SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.