PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.