PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 556 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.