PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .354vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Slider 27%Changeup 24%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 4%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LT Leody Taveras SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Coby Mayo RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.