RunsLeft › Pitchers › Griffin Canning
Starting Pitcher · San Diego Padres

Griffin Canning

RHP · Throws Right · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
56.0%
56.0% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 3.5 Ks, tonight vs. AZ. Confidence medium.
ERA
6.71
FIP
–
IP
51.0
W-L
1-6
WHIP
1.61
K%
22.0
BB%
13.2
GB%
–
K/9
8.8
HR/9
1.4
Drafted by the Los Angeles Angels in 2017 (round 2), he was signed by the San Diego Padres in free agency in February 2026. He made his MLB debut on April 30, 2019.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Diamondbacks · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Diamondbacks current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .310

  1. 1 KM Ketel Marte SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LG Lourdes Gurriel Jr. RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Tommy Troy RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tommy Troy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Jorge Barrosa SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Barrosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .196 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Four-Seam Fastball

FF · lead pitch

33% of pitches · .383 xwOBA allowed · 392 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
3%5%5%5%2%2%7%9%8%3%3%8%10%11%6%0%1%1%2%1%0%1%2%3%2%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.160.449.154.406.209.549.382.445.258.409.512.409.493.239.333–.291.379.119.702–.689.536.890.708
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.005.020.008.020.004.013.025.038.020.013.017.034.051.026.021–.002.005.002.008–.006.011.025.016
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) has allowed .383 xwOBA over 392 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

7 pitch types · 5,129-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Four-Seam Fastball FF
33% usage · 15% whiff · .383 xwOBA · 94.3 mph
Slider SL
27% usage · 34% whiff · .319 xwOBA · 87.3 mph
Changeup CH
24% usage · 24% whiff · .304 xwOBA · 90.0 mph
Knuckle Curve KC
7% usage · 25% whiff · .271 xwOBA · 81.1 mph
Sinker SI
4% usage · 0% whiff · .472 xwOBA · 93.7 mph
Cutter FC
3% usage · 26% whiff · .402 xwOBA · 89.5 mph
Sweeper ST
2% usage · .111 xwOBA · 86.2 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/255/316/66/126/176/236/297/4
Four-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB21.2 .350 692
vs. RHB19.6 .320 595
Live · client-hydrated

Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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Live · client-hydrated

DFS picks

today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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