PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 590 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 623 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.