PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.