PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 28%Changeup 24%Knuckle Curve 7%Sinker 4%Cutter 3%Sweeper 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 516 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-29 game page →