PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .350vs RHH xwOBA .315Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Slider 26%Changeup 24%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 4%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 557 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.