PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 25%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LT Lane Thomas RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.