PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 31%Slider 26%Changeup 24%Knuckle Curve 8%Sinker 5%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 646 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.