PITCHER MATCHUP

Griffin Canning vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Griffin Canning's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Griffin Canning's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .352vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Slider 27%Changeup 24%Knuckle Curve 7%Sinker 4%Cutter 4%Sweeper 2%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Griffin Canning, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 602 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →