PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Curveball 22%Sweeper 21%Cutter 12%Sinker 11%Slider 1%Changeup 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BB Byron Buxton RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KC Kody Clemens SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Austin Martin RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RL Royce Lewis RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →