PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .310vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sweeper 22%Curveball 22%Sinker 11%Cutter 11%Slider 1%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JB JJ Bleday LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →