PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Curveball 22%Sweeper 22%Cutter 12%Sinker 11%Slider 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-17 game page →