PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sweeper 23%Curveball 22%Sinker 11%Cutter 10%Slider 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 544 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.