PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sweeper 23%Curveball 22%Sinker 11%Cutter 10%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.