PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sweeper 22%Curveball 22%Sinker 11%Cutter 11%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 479 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.