PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .294vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Sweeper 24%Curveball 21%Sinker 11%Cutter 9%Knuckle Curve 1%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.