PITCHER MATCHUP

Gavin Williams vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Gavin Williams's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Gavin Williams's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Curveball 22%Sweeper 21%Cutter 12%Sinker 11%Slider 1%Changeup 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Gavin Williams, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-28 game page →