PITCHER MATCHUP

Framber Valdez vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Framber Valdez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Framber Valdez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Curveball 31%Changeup 19%Slider 4%Four-Seam Fastball 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Framber Valdez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-17 game page →