PITCHER MATCHUP

Framber Valdez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Framber Valdez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Framber Valdez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 45%Curveball 31%Changeup 18%Slider 4%Four-Seam Fastball 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Framber Valdez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .396
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (45% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.