PITCHER MATCHUP

Drew Rasmussen vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Drew Rasmussen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Drew Rasmussen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .287vs RHH xwOBA .279Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Cutter 31%Sinker 23%Changeup 7%Curveball 4%Sweeper 4%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Drew Rasmussen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →