PITCHER MATCHUP

Drew Rasmussen vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Drew Rasmussen's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Drew Rasmussen's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .271Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Cutter 31%Sinker 23%Changeup 6%Curveball 4%Sweeper 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Drew Rasmussen, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .392
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →