PITCHER MATCHUP

David Peterson vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against David Peterson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

David Peterson's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .281vs RHH xwOBA .352Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 30%Four-Seam Fastball 23%Slider 21%Changeup 14%Curveball 12%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against David Peterson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 643 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-25 game page →