RunsLeft › Pitchers › David Peterson
Starting Pitcher · Chicago Cubs

David Peterson

LHP · Throws Left · Age 30Starter
Model projection · strikeout prop
64.8%
64.8% against a 57.7% break-even. Over 4.5 Ks, tonight vs. BAL. Confidence high.
ERA
6.75
FIP
–
IP
77.1
W-L
4-7
WHIP
1.67
K%
18.8
BB%
9.1
GB%
–
K/9
7.9
HR/9
0.9
Drafted by the New York Mets in 2017 (round 1), he was acquired by the Chicago Cubs via trade from the New York Mets in June 2026. He made his MLB debut on July 28, 2020.Facts: MLB StatsAPI (people · transactions)

Tonight's Matchup

vs. Orioles · pregame

Projected xwOBA vs. Orioles current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) — season profile, not tonight's posted lineup · lineup avg .313

  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 LT Leody Taveras SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
▸ Full season matchup breakdown → · game preview

Sinker

SI · lead pitch

30% of pitches · .394 xwOBA allowed · 508 BIP · where it goes, what it costs

Pitcher Locations
where he throws it · catcher’s view
0%0%1%2%2%1%1%4%5%6%2%8%17%18%13%1%2%4%4%2%1%2%2%3%1%
Rare 0% · Common 10% · Very common 20%+
xwOBA Allowed
damage done by zone · all batters
.697–.138.467.665.701.247.302.257.534.364.187.458.381.345.707.577.277.304.638.695.390.324.407–
Cold .200 · Avg .310 · Hot .500+
Expected Damage
locations × damage zones
.001–.001.008.013.004.002.011.014.030.008.014.079.068.045.008.012.010.011.011.010.009.008.010–
Low risk · Average · High-risk zone
Sinker (30% usage) has allowed .394 xwOBA over 508 balls in play — his most-used pitch.

Arsenal

usage × whiff, ranked

5 pitch types · 6,034-pitch sample · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1

Sinker SI
30% usage · 10% whiff · .394 xwOBA · 91.9 mph
Four-Seam Fastball FF
23% usage · 20% whiff · .364 xwOBA · 92.1 mph
Slider SL
21% usage · 32% whiff · .273 xwOBA · 86.1 mph
Changeup CH
14% usage · 23% whiff · .314 xwOBA · 85.7 mph
Curveball CU
12% usage · 30% whiff · .291 xwOBA · 80.7 mph
Whiff% Trend
last 8 outings · by pitch · min 5 swings per point
010203040505/215/265/316/106/156/216/277/3
SinkerFour-Seam FastballSlider
Hand Splits
K% + xwOBA allowed by batter side · 2026/2025/2024 blend, weighted 4/3/1
SplitK%xwOBASample
vs. LHB27.4 .280 402
vs. RHB16.9 .357 1,180
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Market lines

current pick’em lines by book · updates through the day

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today’s picks for this pitcher, probability-sorted · graded nightly

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