PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 25%Slider 24%Changeup 23%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-22 game page →