PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .279vs RHH xwOBA .351Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 26%Slider 24%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.