PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 25%Slider 24%Changeup 23%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 582 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 619 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.