PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .269vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 27%Sinker 23%Changeup 21%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Knuckle Curve 8%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (23% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-07 game page →