PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 26%Sinker 24%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Knuckle Curve 8%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Myles Straw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-04 game page →