PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .279vs RHH xwOBA .351Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 26%Slider 24%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.