PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .279vs RHH xwOBA .351Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 26%Slider 24%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 19%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .376
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .414 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.