PITCHER MATCHUP

Daniel Lynch IV vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Daniel Lynch IV's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Daniel Lynch IV's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .340Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 25%Slider 24%Changeup 22%Four-Seam Fastball 20%Knuckle Curve 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Daniel Lynch IV, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .377
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-16 game page →