PITCHER MATCHUP

Cristian Javier vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cristian Javier's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cristian Javier's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .348Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Sweeper 26%Changeup 18%Knuckle Curve 5%Sinker 4%Cutter 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cristian Javier, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.