PITCHER MATCHUP

Cristian Javier vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cristian Javier's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cristian Javier's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .319vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Sweeper 24%Changeup 18%Knuckle Curve 7%Sinker 6%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cristian Javier, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →