PITCHER MATCHUP

Cristian Javier vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Cristian Javier's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Cristian Javier's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .343Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Sweeper 26%Changeup 18%Knuckle Curve 5%Sinker 4%Cutter 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Cristian Javier, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.