PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 TG Trent Grisham LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC José Caballero RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.