PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .252vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Sinker 19%Changeup 19%Curveball 13%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Ben Rice LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AR Amed Rosario RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Amed Rosario
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AV Anthony Volpe RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Anthony Volpe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JE J.C. Escarra LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.C. Escarra
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.