PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .390
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .448 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.