PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 14%Slider 8%Sweeper 6%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Jake Burger RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JJ Josh Jung RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Jung
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JP Joc Pederson LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 WL Wyatt Langford RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wyatt Langford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 KH Kyle Higashioka RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Higashioka
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AO Alejandro Osuna LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Osuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JS Josh Smith LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.