PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Texas Rangers

How the Texas Rangers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Texas Rangers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Texas Rangers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BN Brandon Nimmo LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Nimmo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 591 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Jake Burger RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Burger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ED Ezequiel Duran RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JP Joc Pederson LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joc Pederson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 EC Evan Carter LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Evan Carter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 WL Wyatt Langford RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wyatt Langford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AO Alejandro Osuna LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Osuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nicky Lopez LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nicky Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JS Josh Smith LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.