PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .246vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 13%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW James Wood LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CA CJ Abrams LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Curtis Mead RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-30 game page →