PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JY Jacob Young RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 DC Dylan Crews RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT José Tena LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Tena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BH Brady House RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.