PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CA CJ Abrams LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 506 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JW James Wood LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dylan Crews RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Crews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BH Brady House RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brady House
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.