PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .239vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 629 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .386
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MV Mark Vientos RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-26 game page →