PITCHER MATCHUP

Connelly Early vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Connelly Early's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Connelly Early's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .244vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Sinker 19%Changeup 18%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Sweeper 7%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Connelly Early, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .329
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .386
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.